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Old 1st September 2010, 11:02 PM   #1
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Post Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

On 12 August 2010 at approximately 2.00am a large limb failed from the white fig (planted in 1894) in the car park of the scenic Chinderah Tavern near Tweed Heads NSW.

There's a lot of controversy, even a sit in protester and calls for boycotts if the tree is cut down.

I have watched the case for some time, reading all I could but eventually had to visit for myself to see first hand what the play was.

The tree IS NOT PROTECTED so this plays into the recent Today Tonight show about tree disputes.

It also opens the can of worms I have long spoken about where rules change midstream and councils protect trees at a whim.

This story illustrates the various players. I have attached 3 PDF's from news articles (in order) I think that presented the story well, including the editorial.

It was coincidental that the day I decided to go and see was the day 2 TV crews turned up and the manager was available, who was very approachable and considerate of the situation. Whilst I was there a council guy showed up so did some consultant for a Heritage NSW report. This is a big deal, all in a little sleepy town like Chinderah.

I also made a video which takes many of the factors into consideration .... by watching the video you'll get a very good insight to the whole story including some great pictures of the tree and failed parts.



The picture below shows reknown arborist, Australian Champion tree climber staging a sit in and getting chatted to by the cops.

Attached Thumbnails
Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree-tweed-tree-protester.jpg  
Attached Files
File Type: pdf tweed tree 1.pdf (1.73 MB, 61 views)
File Type: pdf tweed tree 2.pdf (1.28 MB, 49 views)
File Type: pdf tweed tree 3.pdf (538.9 KB, 74 views)
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Old 2nd September 2010, 08:49 AM   #2
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

A copy of the Heritage Assessment is attached.

A copy of the Council Meeting Minutes is attached.

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Old 3rd September 2010, 08:06 AM   #3
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Incredible to say the least! if the insurance have now refused to cover any further damage made by this tree then i dont see how the protesters can stop the removal no matter what the arb reports say, if one of them or some one they know is hurt they would be first on the owners back for compensation.
a very tough few weeks ahead for all concerned.
well presented and put together Eric
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Old 3rd September 2010, 09:17 PM   #4
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Very interesting case Eric.

I feel it is inevitable that the tree will continue to deteriorate. I am not a big fan of props and bracing but accept that they have their place particularly for culturally important trees. Even so such measures may only slow the passage to decline.

Personally I would recommend that:
1. either the tree be removed and a replacement planted (and protected) or;
2. the tree be made as safe as possible (by reducing the weight on the longer limbs, using bracing, props and erecting an informative safety notice!). I would then take seeds and or cuttings to propagate a replacement that could either be planted nearby or transplanted when the parent tree was eventually removed.

Has anyone actually diagnosed what fungus is responsible for the decay and carried out any investigations to establish the level of decay present?

Cheers
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Old 3rd September 2010, 09:30 PM   #5
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

We are waiting on 2 arborist reports to get published.
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Old 13th September 2010, 12:20 PM   #6
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

There look to be a number of limbs with cracks, and I would want to remove them, or at least cut them back substantially. Typically, when an insurance company refuses to pay for more damage, the owner has to comply with removal -- or have very deep pockets to cover potential liabilities. Not many of those people around.
It may be possible to narrow the crown sufficiently, and have a bold arborist declare the tree is safe with continued monitoring , and (tiny possibility) have the insurance continue. But either another insurance company would have to be involved (and they all talk to each other) or the tree will have to be removed -- a real pity.
Cuttings from the tree might help to perpetuate these genes.
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Old 15th September 2010, 08:25 PM   #7
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Historic fig tree spared the axe | Tweed News | Local News in Tweed | Tweed Daily News

Quote:
15th September 2010

AN historic 114-year-old fig tree in the car park of the Chinderah Tavern is to be spared the axe but not the pruning saw.

Tweed Shire councillors, at a special meeting to discuss the fate of the tree last night, decided to accept an offer from the hotel owners to retain the tree but prune it for safety reasons.

The meeting followed a series of expert reports on the tree following the collapse of a huge branch a month ago.

But councillors refused to impose an interim heritage order which would legally protect the tree after discussing the matter behind closed doors.

Cr Dot Holdom moved to bring down the shutters on open debate on the legal repercussions of a heritage order despite earlier hopes voiced by Mayor Warren Polglase that the whole meeting would remain public.

They rejected a call for the heritage order by Greens Party councillor Katie Milne who argued for a legally binding agreement.

Taphouse Hotel Group director Richard Adams had written to the council saying pruning the tree would meet health, safety and insurance requirements while keeping it.
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Old 16th September 2010, 06:25 PM   #8
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Good concise video. Nice one dude!
That rich fella at the start of the video should really stop complaining. How much more value can you want from a property? It's already worth a pretty penny. Why don't people appreciate the value of trees?
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Old 16th September 2010, 08:27 PM   #9
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

In the PDF attached you'll be able to read both tree reports.

I also again inform you all that the QTRA method of assessing risk is questionable, do not take it as gospel. A thread on that here.

Tree risk assessments| 15methods compared

In addition an email has been recently circulated from the QAA written by Jan Allen of Terraark. Appears QAA forwarded her email to their member base.... copy below.

Quote:
Dear colleagues,

I wish to draw your attention to the matter and fate of the large Ficus virens located in the carpark of the Chinderah Tavern. Some of you would know of the Fig from previous emails or its recent appearance in the local print and television media following a recent limb failure, attempt by the owner to remove the tree and subsequent stay of execution thanks to timely action by our good friend Brett Hamlin.

Unfortunately this was/is just a temporary reprieve. I have attached a meeting agenda for an extraordinary Tweed Council Meeting that is to be held tomorrow evening to decide upon the tree's fate. The agenda is posted on the council website http://www.tweed.nsw.gov.au/councilm...tingsView.aspx (see Extraordinary Meeting Agenda and Reports) so that I have no hesitation in forwarding this information to you, part of which contains copies of two arborists reports and advice from Council's legal section. I will leave critique of the arborists reports to others and no doubt this will be provided on different fora. I was co-author of one report and my professional bias speaks for itself. I would be happy to receive any comments or questions in relation to Terra ARK's assessment from any of you if you care to contact me directly.


In brief......The tree is on private land in Tweed Shire; the owner of the tree has recently made effort to remove the tree based on advice from their insurer and an 'independant' arborists report supporting the tree removal; Tweed Council has averted the tree removal following public outcry and pending a decision in relation to investigation and placement of a Heritage Order on the tree (http://www.tweed.nsw.gov.au/ChinderahTreeUpdate.aspx ) and more recently following receipt of report commissioned from Terra ARK. Also pertinent to the matter of tree management is the intention of the property owner to redevelop the Tavern.


Unfortunately, the fate of this individual tree is likely to be decided on matters other than those of an arboricultural nature and, validity of assessments aside, I would encourage you to read the recommendations from the Council legal team and consider their broader implication to the placing of Heritage orders on trees within private land.


The recommendation is put forward that the Heritage Order not be placed on the tree because it would then place the burden of liability and management on Tweed Council. The argument then proceeds that if Tweed council fail in their responsibility to undertake management works or to provide ongoing inspections and assessments they could be liable for any eventual damage or harm.


I admit that I have a poor knowledge of the legal consequence of Heritage Orders within NSW and would appreciate enlightenment from anyone of you that might be better informed. However I do find the rationale from the Tweed Council solicitors somewhat strange in that it seems to imply that Tweed Council are not competent at managing their assets. The cost of the works is a consideration but it is then proposed as an option that council undertake the works on behalf of the owner if he agrees to retain the tree. If it is just a matter of money then I am sure there would be great support from the Tweed Community in putting aside funds to manage the current and future needs of this tree as well as other highly significant tree assets under their Council's control.


If you to remove the descriptor “tree” from the legal counsel and insert heritage house, or bridge, or monument…this position makes very little rational sense at all. As many of you are very well aware local government takes responsibility for the management of a very wide range of assets in the public realm. Of course trees are living organisms there is a professional body that provides qualified advice with regarding specific aspects of their management…as such the management of trees is no different to the management of any other valuable public asset.


Currently Tweed Shire have no dedicated vegetation protection legislation that might trigger notification of removal of any individual trees within private land other than those that are listed on the heritage register. A rather deplorable state of affairs I think that needs to change.


The excellent efforts of Brett Hamlin, the Tweed Shire tree officers and those Councilors with some rational integrity should be applauded for highlighting this matter and bringing it to public attention. I ask you to lend them your support through voicing concern over the lack of commitment to adequate tree protection legislation within the Tweed Shire, particularly for such significant trees as this fig tree at Chinderah


Please if you have an opinion on the matter of the Fig tree or broader vegetation protection matters( I know some of you live in Tweed Shire) please let it be known to the Council via email responses .tsc@tweed.nsw.gov.au.


Even if we are unable to ensure a calm and considered response is taken in relation to this particular tree, we should take this opportunity to ensure a greater level of protection is afforded to such trees in the future.


kind regards


Jan Allen
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File Type: pdf Chinderah tavern tree reports.pdf (1.61 MB, 45 views)
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Old 16th September 2010, 08:33 PM   #10
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Move the pub
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Old 16th September 2010, 09:35 PM   #11
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

In response to the QAA and Jan Allen's propoganda I offer an alternative point of view ..... copy of email sent to Tweed Council.
Quote:
Hi

I am very happy to read the outcome and that no protection order was placed on the tree.

If you would have protected it in this instance a huge untrustworthy message would have been sent throughout the shire, that even if your tree is not protected a bunch of lobbyists and protesters could change that, so cut it down fast and now!

Cases like the Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree is nothing new, so I tell you what happens in the real world because people cannot trust councils or even their neighbours these days.

If the tree is not protected but significant (clearly visible in the area) and the owner (within their legal right) wants to cut it down, the tree company poisons it prior to removal. So that if a back-flip is done the tree dies anyway then has to be removed as a hazard later.

Sounds cruel or mean but it is insurance against intervention into peoples legal right, the poisoning can take place even at the quote stage and is not illegal as at the time the tree was not protected. This type of practice have come about due predominantly to councils protecting trees at a whim, in essence councils were the catalyst for the practice.

In NZ on 1 January 2012 Clause 52 will be invoked which prohibits the blanket protection of trees in urban areas, just shows not everyone (or whole countries) think the same:-

Tree Protection Abolished | Clause52 New Zealand

In addition I will add that watching the events unfold was most interesting, consider this view point.

* We witnessed an illegal protest on private land, Hamlin could have been arrested.
* We witnessed a public boycott of the hotel if the tree was felled (chanted at protest).
* Beneath the surface those in the industry knew of a black ban to work at the premises on that tree.

More information here:-

http://www.edo.org.au/edonsw/site/factsh/fs10_7.php

That's a pretty damning way of influencing an outcome and if the council succumb to that it would surely be a sad day. I think terrorists use similar but more dramatic techniques to get their points across too.

Some people reading this email would consider that I am a tree hater etc but I assure you I am not, and the video I cut shows the factions at play:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ53cJ6EvsA

Often when consulting we need to consider more than the tree, whilst we may have pressures to either retain or remove the tree a good report will consider both options and the longevity of the tree .... something both reports failed on.

That tree lives in sand, 30m from the river. The tree is maybe only 1m above the high tide level. I can show you a Ficus hillii that is only 20 years old in a similar location that is almost that size. Sometimes people forget that, what the future is and how it can be shaped.

The protection of trees is being lobbied upon you, be wise in your decisions and trees are like real estate because location matters a lot. I draw to your attention the recent court case in Brisbane where the rate payer's land was devalued by the court to the tune of $437,500 due to a protected fig tree:-

Implications of Owning a Protected Fig Tree

It would be reasonable to say compensation is required where people lose the use of their land to a tree, if they cannot build what they want and do what they want then why pay the rates on that portion.

I also have developed an easy on-line calculator so you can see how much land is required for a tree according to AS4970:-

http://www.treeworld.info/tpz-srz-as...alculator.html



Regards
Eric Frei
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Old 16th September 2010, 10:12 PM   #12
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Great responce there Eric
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Old 16th September 2010, 10:31 PM   #13
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

I wonder how many QAA members have tree lopping businesses and should reconsider their membership when they have their organisation not acting in their best interest by lobbying to protect trees that they can cut down.
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Old 17th September 2010, 09:35 AM   #14
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Well put, Eric!
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Old 7th October 2010, 11:14 PM   #15
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Mob rule rejected elsewhere.

And in this case it was a protected tree unlike this tree, good story.

Fair Haven Council rejects notice of tree cutting | thehub.gmnews.com | Hub


Quote:
Ordinance would have required notification of property owners within 200 feet
BY LIZ SHEEHAN Correspondent

FAIR HAVEN — The majority of the Borough Council has told borough residents that it’s none of their business if neighbors want to cut down trees on their own property.

A motion to pass an ordinance that would have required notification of those who live within 200 feet of a proposed removal of trees protected under the town’s tree preservation ordinance was withdrawn by Councilman Jon Peters at the council’s Sept. 13 meeting.

Peters acted after three councilmen — Robert Marchese, James Banahan and Benjamin Lucarelli — expressed their opposition to the ordinance, citing property rights and the Constitution.

What you’re calling for is mob rule,” Lucarelli said.


Before withdrawing the motion to adopt the ordinance, Peters asked Banahan if he would vote for the ordinance if it were revised.

When Banahan indicated he would not support the measure, Peters withdrew his motion.

The Planning Board had reviewed the ordinance and approved it but suggested that the notice to neighbors within 200 feet be done personally, rather than by certified mail, which is costly.

Councilman John Lehnert, who had proposed the original ordinance, suggested that the Planning Board’s change be adopted and the ordinance be voted on with the revision.

After the meeting, Lehnert said he had not made a motion to adopt a revised ordinance with the notification change suggested by the board, because he realized it didn’t have a chance to pass, given the lack of support for the idea by the three council members.

Banahan said after the meeting that he believed the existing ordinance governing tree removal was working well.

“I don’t think the general public has to weigh in” when the council is determining if a property owner’s appeal of the town’s code enforcement officer’s decision to deny a resident request to remove trees would be upheld, he said.

Public input would “color” the procedure, he said.


Presently, the council hears the appeals at its workshop sessions, which have no provision for public comment.

Banahan said the Constitution was the basis of his decision to not support the proposed ordinance.

Borough Administrator Mary Howell said Monday that in 2009 four denials of tree removal were appealed to the council and three were then approved. In 2010, she said, five denials were appealed, three were approved by the council and two were withdrawn.

The tree preservation ordinance, passed in 2007, states that its purpose is “to prevent clear cutting of trees on privately owned properties in the borough and to restrict the removal of other trees, thereby maintaining the beauty and character of the Borough of Fair Haven, preventing erosion and controlling action that would substantially change drainage patterns …”

Under the ordinance, trees of certain diameters and “significant specimen trees,” are protected.

The proposed ordinance calling for neighbors to be notified of tree removal plans came after residents of Poplar Street, which is lined with tall, mature trees, protested the council’s decision to permit a developer, Spencer Foxworth, to remove 10 healthy trees from a lot in order to build houses there.

The minutes of the June 15 council hearing of Foxworth’s appeal stated that Elizabeth Lillestom, the borough’s code enforcement officer, who denied Foxworth’s application, said that two Norway Spruce trees the developer wanted to remove “are larger than the largest recorded trees in Monmouth County and Mr. Foxworth has requested to remove more that the 20 percent allowance by ordinance.”

After the council’s decision, neighbors of the Foxworth property, sparked by the efforts of 13-year-old Zoe Gallagher, called for notification of nearby residents when appeals for applications for tree removal are to be held, so their opinions could be heard
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Old 27th October 2010, 08:58 PM   #16
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Have you done the QTRA training Eric? The course I attended was run by a guy that had forgotten more about trees than most I've met have learnt. It wasn't clear in the video what sort of assessment you undertook of the tree before you offered your opinion. Did you do any testing other than a visual walk around inspection to ascertain exactly what levels of decay existed, etc, etc, etc. I would hope that your opinion was based on fact, not guess work. I think you'll find that the vast majority of highly qualified arborists both here and abroad are very accepting of QTRA, and with very good reason. I certainly saw a number of over-inflated ego's put in check on the course I attended by an extremely qualified and experienced arborist. All those ego's are now well and truly believers in the system.
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Old 27th October 2010, 10:37 PM   #17
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

My comments are in red.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArborComm View Post
Have you done the QTRA training Eric?

No, but I have posted a paper about it written by Martin Norris. I have read all their PDF's and reports using the QTRA system. So I think I have a fairly good understanding of it.

The course I attended was run by a guy that had forgotten more about trees than most I've met have learnt.

Well, maybe you hang around the wrong sorts of people. I do not know your name, I even visited the website of yours and there's no full names and no qualifications at all, just ISA and QTRA logo's splashed around.

It wasn't clear in the video what sort of assessment you undertook of the tree before you offered your opinion.

For starters I do not do the editing of what the media shoots so what you see on TV is snippets of what is shot. I was not paid or working on anyone's behalf, I was not commissioned to assess or write a report for anyone and simply had a good look and in depth conversations with the owner and the media about the tree and diagnostics to be performed.

What sort of assessment did Brett Hamlin and the protesters undertake before they offered their opinion?


Did you do any testing other than a visual walk around inspection to ascertain exactly what levels of decay existed, etc, etc, etc.

LOL, you'd be surprised what I did mention in detail was required and why, but it was not published anywhere especially knowing 2 reports were coming out.

Neither of the two reports identified the fungus.

Neither of the two reports detailed the size and depth of the cavity where the limb tore, I could put my foot in it.

Terraark report stated the limb failed due to being overloaded, so did Hamlin, but it was decayed. Since when does overloading lead to longitudinal decay emanating at the centre? The limb that failed pivoted on the limb beneath it snapping in it's socket, strange way for an overloaded limb to fail that did not have an attachment defect, a defect that may go all the way down to the root crown.

The decay was emanating from the centre of the limb, so without drilling/coring, doing resistograph or picus tests how would you know from external examination (steel probe or visual) if other large limbs had internal decay? How does a steel probe deal with rot that causes wood embrittlement (so the wood is hard not soft and spongy)? It cannot, so certain decay pathogens will not be found.

Water now will be funnelled down the large leaders into the hole at the apex of the saddle, which already has decay fungi in it. In addition there is now large pruning wounds (from removed branches) that will never seal over, decay is present and near the apex of the saddle where these limbs were pruned.


I would hope that your opinion was based on fact, not guess work.

No need to hope. If you knew me you'd know facts is what I am about and hope is something left for religions and perhaps QTRA users.

I think you'll find that the vast majority of highly qualified arborists both here and abroad are very accepting of QTRA, and with very good reason. I certainly saw a number of over-inflated ego's put in check on the course I attended by an extremely qualified and experienced arborist. All those ego's are now well and truly believers in the system.

Yes, most systems like that require believers to work, religion has been successful on that one for eons. It's the latest buzz (QTRA) like belonging to some pseudo mafioso organisation to validate your stature amongst peers. Maybe it could be node pruned by that expert ISA guy or carefully pruned by the Stewards who looked after the Memorial figs in Mackay.



All those ego's are now paying fees to UK for a statistical outcome, an outcome that has been shown to vary widely amongst users. The probability of failure is only one component in the QTRA number (and that's open to personal perception). The $ value of the target plays another number, the number for the store room full of stock is different to the number if it's empty or has a person it .... whilst those numbers change the "risk", the probability of failure remains a constant.

The QTRA system is likely being used by many to cover their asses. Let the insurer know that the $5K damage to the building was within acceptable levels of risk because you knew it would be uninhabited. Let the life insurer know that the fella was just plain unlucky because statistically he was 1/12,000 risk which is over the 1/10,000

So you can see that QTRA numbers were applied not knowing the answers to the questions raised, based on visual assessment. Take that matter up with some-one eh.

Here's a picture of it taken 27 September 2010, the parked cars beneath are pretty much a constant thing all day, many people park there for a short while too leaving the kids in the car while they to pop into the bottle shop (as it is not a drive through).


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Old 28th October 2010, 12:00 AM   #18
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Eric, sorry you took my comment so personally. Your tag line is "Ignorance is contagious, check yours". Could that be applied to somebody who attacks something like QTRA without having attended the course and actually allowed their own doubts to be answered by those most able to do so.

Is this not an open forum where differing views are allowed to be aired, or is yours the only correct one. Ego much?
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Old 28th October 2010, 08:03 AM   #19
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

My comments are in red.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArborComm View Post
Eric, sorry you took my comment so personally.

Yes I took your ignorant attack as exactly what it is. Neither of the report writers who were paid did more than VTA so why didn't you attack them and their methodology? Because you are just here to make trouble and hide behind anonymity just like your website does.

Your tag line is "Ignorance is contagious, check yours". Could that be applied to somebody who attacks something like QTRA without having attended the course and actually allowed their own doubts to be answered by those most able to do so.

Attacking something or discussing something, something that is turning arborists into ass covering statisticians, something that has viable evidence against it, something that has discrepancies and variances based on personal use. The rate of 1/100 applied to the QTRA numbers of that tree by Terraark is interesting, there is not a 100 like it, no-one has seen a hundred like it, no-one has comprehensively investigated 100 like it yet the user applies a number that is little more than an educated guess. But changing that number slightly like from 1/100 to say 2/100 or 1/200 makes huge differences in the outcome.

To travel further down your pattern of thought then one must join all religions or study them to pass opinion of them, if you haven't studied God then how can you comment about it? But God doesn't exist so how can I study it? Oh because he does exist and until you do study it you will remain ignorant. Sounds like a rhetorical never ending cycle eh.


Is this not an open forum where differing views are allowed to be aired, or is yours the only correct one.

You haven't aired yours, just come and squawked all over one mine applying demeaning dialogue to add to your cause. You have brought nothing to the table, no in depth discussion of the matter, no figures, no data, no numbers, nothing.

Ego much?

And as usual here comes the personal attack, cant argue with the subject lets attack the poster, same ole same ole. I saw on the Pommie site that the QTRA honcho Mike Ellison wouldn't even debate with an anonymous user, take that to the bank, probably been deleted now because they do that a lot of there making the business people, money splashers and tree huggers look good you know.
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Old 29th October 2010, 09:13 PM   #20
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Default Qtra

For those who do not know QTRA = Quantified Tree Risk Assessment.

Here's a list of all their PDF's.

It's a multiplier system to give a number for RoH (Risk of Harm).

Target value ratio X Impact potential ratio X Probability of failure ratio x (optional weather ratio) = RoH

However it is not really geared for structures, so they have a fudgy value method. It is looking at risk of death really.

From their document.

Quote:
Having considered The British Medical Association Guide "Living with Risk" (Henderson 1987)
and with particular reference to the conclusion "few people would commit their own resources to
reduce an annual risk of death that was already as low as 1/10,000", Helliwell (1990) suggests that
1/10,000 might be a suitable figure to start with as the limit of acceptable risk. Furthermore, "For
members of the public who have a risk imposed on them 'in the wider interest' HSE (Health and
Safety Executive) would set this limit at 1/10,000 per annum" (Health and Safety Executive 1996).
In the management of trees, a property owner or manager might adopt the 1/10,000 limit of
acceptable risk or choose to operate to a higher or lower level.
So 1/10,000 is considered the benchmark.

Now the value of a human life is, but pay attention to what they do for property (I made that part red):-

Quote:
Value of Statistical Life is a term used in risk assessment to express the monetary value of an
individual life. In the UK, this value is currently in the region of Ł750,000 - Ł1,000,000 ($1,387,500 -
$1,850,600), (Health and Safety Executive 1995) and is proposed here to correlate the value of
damage to property with the value of human life
.
Now with structures it gets real interesting.

From their own document it says:-

Quote:
When evaluating target property, it is necessary to
consider the approximate cost of repairs or
replacement that might be required if the tree or
branch under consideration should fail. The values in
Table 1 represent the likely cost of repair or
replacement. Quantified Tree Risk Assessment Ltd.
provides Licensed Users of the system with annual
monetary conversion rates that enable application of
the system internationally.
The ranges of monetary value for property used in
Table 1 are derived from a value of "hypothetical life"
of $1,796,000 (Ł1,000,000†). For example, Target
Range 2 represents a probability of pedestrian
occupation up to 1/20; $1,796,000 ÷ 20 = $89,800†.
Thus, property likely to incur a repair cost of
$89,800†, which is one-twentieth the value of a
hypothetical life, is apportioned a ratio of 1/20.
So if the target property which is always there is likely to incur a repair cost equal to a human life (Ł1,000,000) it gets a 1/1 rating.

But if the building is likely to cop only $89,800 damage then it gets a lower rating multiplier of 1/20.

So the roH changes according to the value of the target, tell the insurance companies then that according to QTRA expect a lot of claims under $24,943 because between $2,493 and $24,943 the ratio is 1/72.

Impact potential is derived from a chart where the size of the piece gets a value.

Probability of failure is:-

Quote:
The Probability of Failure component of the system
provides five ranges. Each range represents a range
of probability of failure occurring within a year,
So here, lets run the numbers for a gum tree with lots of deadwood above a house roof.

Target value ratio is:- because damage is likely to be between $104 and $2,493 ... so the ratio is 1/720

Impact potential ratio is:- I reckon the deadwood is between > 25mm (1") dia.- 100mm (4") dia ... so ratio is 1/82

Probability of failure is:- Well I reckon the ratio is 1/1 because no doubt deadwood will fall and already has.

Weather factor is:- Not req'd as deadwood sheds regardless.

720 x 82 x 1 = 1/59,040 which is well above the 1/10,000 so don't bother deadwooding the tree.

Lets switch the roof for a kids playground which is occupied continuosly for 3 hours per day which is a ratio of 1/8

So the answer is 1/656 so deadwood the tree.

With structures/buildings the weather factor isn't really relevent as unlike people the structure is always there and will cop it, but some will debate that the tree will fail most likely in adverse weather however it is not always the case and certainly was not the case for the Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree or many of the trees in New Farm Park or the tree that fell in Bardon. There may be variances in the damage if the wind is stronger but that is very debateable.

From a powerpoint presented by David Evans 2005 note the ass covering in red.



So you need a licence to use that QTRA eh, another dang rip off, I could make an online calculator for a few hundred bucks eh. QTRA is a licenced system and so is Thermal Imaging, both from UK. The UK has 1000's of years of history to get licencing, class segregated society, hierarchical order (you know, Lords, Princes and Queens etc) and taxing right, even Robin Hood tried to settle the score in his own way. LOL

What next, a licence to use a pocket calculator?
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Old 31st October 2010, 02:13 PM   #21
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Default Qtra

Every year there's a "production" under some trees. Here we are just looking at the occupancy rate for that location. To make it even easier the location is unaccessable at all other times.

The production runs for 2 months with occupancy 24hours per day 7 days per week during that time. The other 10 months of the year no-one is there.

So during that 2 month period there is 1/1 ratio but annually there is only a 1/6 ratio.

It states in their PDF:-

Quote:
Pedestrians.

The probability of pedestrians occupying a target (Table 2) is calculated on the
basis that an individual will spend, on average, five seconds occupying the target area, unless a
longer occupation is likely as with a habitable structure or park bench. For example, ten pedestrians
per day each occupying the target area for five seconds is a daily occupation of fifty seconds, by
which the total seconds in a day are divided to give a probability of target occupation. When
evaluating pedestrian and vehicular frequency (events) during daylight hours, we must consider
whether frequency will be significantly reduced during hours of darkness. The calculation of
frequency must in all cases be the total hours in a year divided by the number of events in a year.

Although a tree failing during the day might be more likely to strike a mobile target than the same
tree at night, it is the frequency of the targets that is most significantly influenced by the time of day
and not the failure of the tree. The sum of the higher daytime occupation and the lower night-time
occupation is the daily occupation. Similarly, a single annual event attracting large numbers of
visitors could significantly increase the Target Value and should be included in the assessment.
Another similar example would be where weekend markets are held near or beneath trees, for example a Sunday market. Lets face it, the chances of you getting hit on the Sunday is 1/7 anyway as the tree could fail any other day. You could even expand that to 1/14 as it's only Sundays from 6am to 6pm that people are there for the market. But what if, what if it did fail on that Sunday at peak 10.00am time? Do you want to be explaining to the judge or choroner that you were playing statistical numbers.

Would QTRA have given this case a risk lower than 1/10,000?.

Depends who is inputting the data eh, if it's a tree hugger they'll lean toward the data that minimses risk, if it's the tree hater they'll give it worst case scenario. This is just considering target value and occupancy .... and this has been part of the Laman Street Figs "movements" debate where an alternative report has provided a different risk as it used different numbers and even considered a weather factor.

In reality, both numbers should be provided, and according to the information provided it states so.

Also there seems to be some play with numbers that goes like this.

The probability that a tree fails is 1/500, therefore in a year (365 days) you could expect a tree to fail if there were 500 trees. In fact based on that logic you'd expect 1.37 trees to fail (500/365). But that is not how things work.

Lets make it easier and this has been discussed on mainstream media here about our weather. The chances of a flood are 1/20, so it didn't flood this year so next year what are the chances of a flood? 1/20 not 1/19 The probability is always the same ....

Lets play the game even simpler. The probabilty of tossing a head over a tail is 1/2, you toss the coin and it comes down tails (you lose) so are you guaranteed the next toss it will land heads? Of course not. But there are people out there confusing many with these types of numbers.

If the probabilty of failure of trees was 1/100,000 it is absurd to say IMHO that in a forest of 100,000 trees one should be expected to fail, but you will see this logic applied consistently.

Of course I am just a tree man, not a statistician, mathematician or actuary so any further discussion or information pertaining to this is invited.
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Old 31st October 2010, 05:55 PM   #22
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Default Probability

Some more about probability from here.

Quote:
The theory of probability becomes of enhanced value to gamblers when it is used with the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers states that:

“If the probability of a given outcome to an event is P and the event is repeated N times, then the larger N becomes, so the likelihood increases that the closer, in proportion, will be the occurrence of the given outcome to N*P.”

For example:-

If the probability of throwing a double-6 with two dice is 1/36, then the more times we throw the dice, the closer, in proportion, will be the number of double-6s thrown to of the total number of throws. This is, of course, what in everyday language is known as the law of averages. The overlooking of the vital words 'in proportion' in the above definition leads to much misunderstanding among gamblers. The 'gambler's fallacy' lies in the idea that “In the long run” chances will even out. Thus if a coin has been spun 100 times, and has landed 60 times head uppermost and 40 times tails, many gamblers will state that tails are now due for a run to get even. There are fancy names for this belief. The theory is called the maturity of chances, and the expected run of tails is known as a 'corrective', which will bring the total of tails eventually equal to the total of heads. The belief is that the 'law' of averages really is a law which states that in the longest of long runs the totals of both heads and tails will eventually become equal.

In fact, the opposite is really the case. As the number of tosses gets larger, the probability is that the percentage of heads or tails thrown gets nearer to 50%, but that the difference between the actual number of heads or tails thrown and the number representing 50% gets larger.

Let us return to our example of 60 heads and 40 tails in 100 spins, and imagine that the next 100 spins result in 56 heads and 44 tails. The 'corrective' has set in, as the percentage of heads has now dropped from 60 per cent to 58 per cent. But there are now 32 more heads than tails, where there were only 20 before. The 'law of averages' follower who backed tails is 12 more tosses to the bad. If the third hundred tosses result in 50 heads and 50 tails, the 'corrective' is still proceeding, as there are now 166 heads in 300 tosses, down to 55-33 per cent, but the tails backer is still 32 tosses behind.

Put another way, we would not be too surprised if after 100 tosses there were 60 per cent heads. We would be astonished if after a million tosses there were still 60 per cent heads, as we would expect the deviation from 50 per cent to be much smaller. Similarly, after 100 tosses, we are not too surprised that the difference between heads and tails is 20. After a million tosses we would be very surprised to find that the difference was not very much larger than 20.

A chance event is uninfluenced by the events which have gone before. If a true die has not shown 6 for 30 throws, the probability of a 6 is still 1/6 on the 31st throw. One wonders if this simple idea offends some human instinct, because it is not difficult to find gambling experts who will agree with all the above remarks, and will express them themselves in books and articles, only to advocate elsewhere the principle of 'stepping in when a corrective is due'.

It is interesting that despite significant statistical evidence and proof of all of the above people will go to extreme lengths to fulfill there belief in the fact that a corrective is due. The number 53 in an Italian lottery had failed to appear for some time and this lead to an obsession with the public to bet ever larger amounts on the number. People staked so much on this corrective that the failure of the number 53 to occur for two years was blamed for several deaths and bankruptcies. It seems that a large number of human minds are just simply unable to cope with the often seemingly contradictory laws of probability. If only they had listened to their maths teacher. The full story is publish here.

An understanding of the law of the large numbers leads to a realisation that what appear to be fantastic improbabilities are not remarkable at all but, merely to be expected.
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Old 31st October 2010, 09:36 PM   #23
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Just letting you know that in the WA case where Richard Pennicuik protested up a gum tree the council wanted to cut down he was convicted for obstruction.

The so called "timely action" of Brett Hamlin is pretty similar.

Also even after video evidence of forestry contractors smashing a protestors car and hitting them they got off relatively light with 70 hours community service, IMHO the judge could see through the smoke and mirrors.

Tasmanian forestry contractors attack protestors

Again, some would say the above statements of mine demonstrate my attitude toward removing trees, again an incorrect assumption, more like my respect for law and people's legal rights. For some strange reason others think it appropriate to take away people's legal rights for a "green" cause, in fact the QAA circulated the email so one must ask do they condone illegal protests and will they deal with their members when they do it?

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Old 6th December 2011, 07:48 AM   #24
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Seems it is on again. Now the tree is not protected and in the middle of a large car park.

Junk mail duo in tree-ring circus

Quote:
December 5, 2011


Getting into the act … Peter Mattick and Philip Salter. Illustration: John Shakespeare

The founders of the junk mail company Salmat, Philip Salter (Sal) and Peter Mattick (Mat), are bracing for more social unrest today outside their watering hole in the northern NSW town of Chinderah.

More than a year since the Chinderah Tavern owners backed off taking a chainsaw to the historic strangler fig in the pub's car park (after a sit-in protest by a local tree surgeon), tempers are again riding high. Tree-loving locals will hold another rally around the tree at 6.30 this morning, armed with Christmas decorations, to protest the pub's plans to prune up to 60 per cent of the fig.

''Specialist veteran tree experts have advised the extensive pruning planned would be an indirect death knell,'' the Tweed Shire Council's Greens councillor Katie Milne has warned.

Cr Milne informed CBD in a ''red alert emergency'' email over the weekend that the ''health of the tree would be severely compromised'' if more than 20 per cent of its limbs were pruned. The tree was planted in 1894.

The unrest in the pub's car park all started when a climbing cactus caused one of the tree's branches to break off.

''Standing over 35 metres in height, this magnificent tree has provided shade and shelter to all who visit the Chindy,'' the pub's website notes. The tavern is part of Sal and Mat's Taphouse Hotel Group.
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Old 8th December 2011, 11:19 AM   #25
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Latest instalment video to watch about this tree.

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Old 8th December 2011, 03:21 PM   #26
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Eric

I can see why you are so "invested" with this case and really, a excellent example of so many other examples out there...!

The more I see of this tree, the more I'm starting to see, how much of a hazard the tree is and if I would be a customer of that pub/bottle shop I would not park my vehicle under the tree nor I would walk or stand under it, particularly in windy conditions.

This brings me to that "right of duty or duty of care" that I was so critically criticised recently on another post of mine. If one have an understanding and experience in these situations (certified or not) and some self respect with appreciation for ones life, surely these situations, activate every alarm bells one has acquire through experience and well being of others.

Is from the moment one becomes aware of the dangers that, a need to do something about, takes over. Now, is one only going to care if they get paid to be concerned about or become involved...??? well according to some "idiots" in this industry, seen posting here often, yeah, that's they mentality and behaviour...!

So, if an hazard is only recognise if you get paid to do so, I would like to see how many of these nut heads would be going to this pub and park their vehicles under this tree...??? unless they would like to have they vehicle smashed for replacement by insurance...!

From your last video, is obvious that you are providing some critical information to allow ones interpretation of the trees health and condition. The use of the aluminium broom handle is near as effective as my specially made 1" steal rod that I used on the old Pear tree with the termite next hidden under its root boll but, I wonder, if the tree owner would give you permission (I don't see why not, after all it would work in his favour) to drill the tree for core samples and inspection (image recording or pics) with a borescope commonly know as the snake scope.

I find these instruments to be a great assistance to determine the trees's health, a fairly inexpensive tool and a quick away to get real time images and pics (stills) to be used as indisputable evidence. Some people my think that the holes sizes require to examine the tree inside, will compromise the trees health and stability, when in reality one can go as small as a 10mm hole for both core sample and camera inspection.

If the tree is going to come down, no need to worry about the hole(s) but if the decision is made that the tree is to stay, I then seal the hole(s) and for that there are a few ways one can go about it.

You see, if the tree owner gives you the permission to inspect the tree, which in legal terms is called "tree assessment", one does not need to be "certified" to do such examination. The knowledge of how and what to do in these examinations/inspections/tree assessments, is not only applicable to those that went to school to learn and come out in most cases with the head full in info, but no hands on experience, that is only expected and new certified people are far from being experienced, that come with time and from getting their hands dirty.

Some of the major differences in between the inspection been made by someone with lots of years of experience in tree issues and uncertified and someone with a certification and many times little experience is that, legally one can not charge the assessment fees to a private individual (exceptions may apply), would not be able to be contracted by councils or government authorities to preform tree assessments with the resulting reports to be ignored (in more cases than not) if it came from a non-certified tree person.

For the private person that has a hazard tree and wants it removed, and asks me for my opinion, or if I see a tree that is an hazard (is like second nature to spot them after a while...!), my inspection/findings/assessment/report verbal or written are in many cases, allowing the tree owner to take the necessary legal steps if required. In more cases than not, these trees can be removed at any time with nothing more than the owners request/permission but when significant trees or trees that have been "tagged" with some sort of legal red-tape, my observations to the tree owner can in many occasions change the outcome or the way the tree owner would go about the issue in the first place. They know (as I tell them) that not being certified, my assessment is not legal but, have been a few cases where the tree owners approached the council "armed" with my findings, pics, etc, (evidence) and they are accepted as such, and activating the council legal system and certified people to confirm the findings and the tree comes down in the end...!

I do enjoy to do these inspections and use my tools to find problems that are in many cases undetected by the naked eye. I did do a few and I rarely do them now as I'm slowing down considerably due the health reasons but I may be requested or I may decided to get involved, always free of charge, if the tree wood species is of interest to me for my turnings, otherwise I don't bother. I may do a hand full in a full year, on a good year...!

You see that, I'm trying not to use the term "arborist" as I'm trying to void further criticism as, and until I joined to this forum, I've used the term arborist to explain many of my actions in the tree world, if asked if certified, I answer no, I'm not certified, without feeling untruthful or guilty, therefore I'm using the term "tree person", which I used a lot more often than arborist, anyway...!

Interesting that the word "arborist" in English language, is very identical to the term/word in Portugal for people dealing/working with trees issues. The translation of tree in Portuguese is "arvore" and the term/word "arvorista", was used for those dealing with trees health and general condition, including the knowledge to plant, trim/prune, or cut trees but particularly, with the ability to climb trees...!


Interesting that, another day I was reading in this forum, on the "interpretation" people have of the term "Arborist", some given from various dictionaries and others that, was interesting to say the least. Those that are in my situation focussed of the examples that defined their situation better, while the certified people, didn't accept those dictionary examples and brought in examples of a definition that suited more their positions, that was interesting to watch...!

When do some people start to realise that, big trees on their own, are a "bigger" source of risks, for obvious reasons, as everything is big from the branches to the problems. Then, people don't seem to accept that trees age and all reach their life expectancy at some point, some are more resilient than others and there are many factors that can determine its decline so, one can not simple justify the need to preserve a tree just because is big and old.

I am also pleased that you are doing such a tremendous job with these issues, backed up by your certifications but particularly for me, for the knowledge and dedication you show to have on tree issues and as and independent tree person. You may have just saved all your common sense and attitude towards these kind of issues, just by keeping yourself away from the cosy council and government job positions that you would be very qualified for (unless you were told that you are over-qualified for the job...! I know, I have been denied positions/jobs in my working career, by such ridiculous excuse...!) and I doubt if never offered to you..!

I hope that you can keep that sort of energy and dedication to the industry, for many years to come...!

Good luck...!

Cheers
George
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Last edited by George Valentine; 8th December 2011 at 05:33 PM.
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Old 8th December 2011, 11:27 PM   #27
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

George,

The gathering of data and facts is similar to that of where a radiologist takes the xray but a doctor interprets it.

I today had a discussion with another high level arborist where he also suggested getting a pipe cam and shoving into the cavity to "check it out".

I also said it would tell him little, and also tell him what he already suspected. It would also not change the treatment.

That's a key thing, the treatments are limited and I have said all over this forum and still maintain today, why bother when the investigation when the treatment will be the same. From the New Farm Park trees to Laman street etc the way you shore up a tree is a constant, reduce lever arm, reduce sail, cable, brace, prop, increase vigour and vitality and root system. I do not need BS equipment to know the obvious.

I believe people who are less tuned in need the equipment and data. Many experienced respectable arborists have the basic tools and know the deal. I carry a petrol Stihl drill these days, always have an increment corer, a keen set of eyes and common sense.

This tree cannot be left alone, in fact it was a huge risk to leave it the way it is and whenever I visit the site I do not park under it. Oh, but I do climb in it, why is that? Because if a piece fails I can jump out of the way but I cannot move my car that quickly. I seriously cringe whenever I see cars under that tree, especially that huge northern leader, must weigh 5 tonnes +.

Large trees like this do bust up as they age. They've got 100+ years out of it in a terrible location and now the decline phase is here.

How to manage it's decline in it's current surroundings.

Back to:- reduce lever arm, weight reduction, sail reduction, cable, brace, prop and TLC. The issue with fencing it is the distance the fence would have to be away from the tree is equivalent to it's height. So if a tall upright leader failed it wouldn't strike anything. But in doing so it means a rather big fence perimeter and not much carpark, so lopping the tree to 1/2 height means a lot smaller fence ... but why fence if the tree is butchered to 1/2 height? No point for a few years as there would little chance of it busting with so much reduction of weight, lever arm and sail.

How to manage the decline of this tree and keep it's dignity?

That is the art, the balance between integrity and aesthetics is ambiguous .... an opinion on every street corner but the fact is something has to be done as clearly the current situation cannot remain.

Last year both reports failed in a true VTA diagnosis and determination of the extent of decay, no-one was "on the money".

Now lets see what happens, because something must happen before some-one or something is damaged/killed.
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Old 9th December 2011, 12:18 AM   #28
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Eric, my comments are in red.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Frei View Post
George,

The gathering of data and facts is similar to that of where a radiologist takes the xray but a doctor interprets it. And that has been the case in many situations, even tough, learning how to interpret xray's can be achieved by most people...!

I today had a discussion with another high level arborist where he also suggested getting a pipe cam and shoving into the cavity to "check it out".

I also said it would tell him little, and also tell him what he already suspected. It would also not change the treatment. Fair enough but, I also found that good pics from such examinations, are indisputable proof when a point is to be made.
That's a key thing, the treatments are limited and I have said all over this forum and still maintain today, why bother when the investigation when the treatment will be the same. From the New Farm Park trees to Laman street etc the way you shore up a tree is a constant, reduce lever arm, reduce sail, cable, brace, prop, increase vigour and vitality and root system. I do not need BS equipment to know the obvious.

I believe people who are less tuned in need the equipment and data. Many experienced respectable arborists have the basic tools and know the deal. I carry a petrol Stihl drill these days, always have an increment corer, a keen set of eyes and common sense. Sure, but if your argument has become doubtful, for whatever reason, some evidence can go a long way, particularly, if the doubt comes from the lack of certification which equals credibility in peoples minds, but not always so...!

This tree cannot be left alone, in fact it was a huge risk to leave it the way it is and whenever I visit the site I do not park under it. Oh, but I do climb in it, why is that? Because if a piece fails I can jump out of the way but I cannot move my car that quickly. I seriously cringe whenever I see cars under that tree, especially that huge northern leader, must weigh 5 tonnes +. That, I couldn't agree more

Large trees like this do bust up as they age. They've got 100+ years out of it in a terrible location and now the decline phase is here.

How to manage it's decline in it's current surroundings.

Back to:- reduce lever arm, weight reduction, sail reduction, cable, brace, prop and TLC. The issue with fencing it is the distance the fence would have to be away from the tree is equivalent to it's height. So if a tall upright leader failed it wouldn't strike anything. But in doing so it means a rather big fence perimeter and not much carpark, so lopping the tree to 1/2 height means a lot smaller fence ... but why fence if the tree is butchered to 1/2 height? No point for a few years as there would little chance of it busting with so much reduction of weight, lever arm and sail.

How to manage the decline of this tree and keep it's dignity?

That is the art, the balance between integrity and aesthetics is ambiguous .... an opinion on every street corner but the fact is something has to be done as clearly the current situation cannot remain.

Last year both reports failed in a true VTA diagnosis and determination of the extent of decay, no-one was "on the money".

Now lets see what happens, because something must happen before some-one or something is damaged/killed.
From your comments, I get the impression that you are saying that, the decay present and in such advance stage, does indicate that you would opt for total removal and replacement, right...???

What you have not said is, what is the tree owners opinion, of your involvement with this issue, as I believe, you are not getting paid to do so, at least at this point, correct...???

Cheers
George
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Old 9th December 2011, 07:00 AM   #29
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

The tree owner is appeasing public opinion and protecting their business from a boycott and being bad mouthed if they remove the tree.

Never been said better than in the Treenet Habitat video, trees also need room to die. This tree simply doesn't have that luxury and throughout that shire large figs like that have been removed in the past, by council etc for similar reason, risk.

Also there are examples of similar figs copping an ugly heavy prune in the name of safety.

The issue now is managing the decline of the tree without removal. Extensive probing of the decay pocket does tell us it is similar in shape and size to the base of the tree leaving a residual wall thickness of unknown millimetres, but relying on wall thicknesses here is a dangerous business as this is not one solid trunk. The transference of tensile root force on say the southern side of the tree to hold up the huge northern side leader has been compromised somewhat due to the extensive cavity.

My personal opinion is the tree should come out in that location as the alternatives are going to be disfiguring and ugly. Plus the site is a commercial premises that will re-develop down the track, and the location of the tree means it will have to go anyway.

The tree has had 115years of reasonable life, especially for that location. How many more years will make protesters happy? And is the risk worth it?
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Old 20th December 2011, 07:56 AM   #30
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Default Re: Chinderah Tavern Fig Tree

Before and after shots of the tree.

Tree at 2 December 2011



And after pruning 16 December 2011

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