World Fuel Crisis Looms!

clementine · 23rd May 2008, 05:25 PM

I think we all have an incling that this is on the cards, especially the way fuel price is rocketing:

http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.htm

This theory is taken from the study above:

"Our simple mathematical model and recent case histories have shown that once oil production in an oil exporting country starts declining, the resulting decline in net oil exports can be quite rapid, and the oil exporter tends to show an accelerating net export decline rate.

We have used some additional mathematical methods to forecast future production and consumption for key oil exporting countries.

Our middle case forecast is that the top five net oil exporting countries, accounting for about half of world net oil exports, will approach zero net oil exports around 2031—going from peak net exports to zero in about 26 years, versus seven years and eight years respectively for the UK and Indonesia. In our opinion, the only real difference between the top five and the UK and Indonesia is that the top five net exporters in 2005 had a lower rate of consumption relative to production.

Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame.

Smaller oil exporters like Angola can and will increase their net exports, but smaller exporters, just like smaller oil fields, tend to have sharper production peaks and more rapid net export declines than do the larger net exporters. And offsetting many of the gains by some smaller exporters will be sharp declines in net exports from other smaller exporters like Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports by 2014.

Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports.

In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy—net oil export capacity—is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the United States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program--electric light rail and streetcars--combined with a crash wind power program.

As Alan Drake has pointed out, the United States--with roughly 1/3rd its current population, 1/25th of its current inflation adjusted GDP and with primitive Technology --built subways in its largest cities and streetcars in 500 cities, towns and villages in just 20 years (1897-1916), which does not even take into account numerous interurban systems.

If we could do it in 1908 with mules, manual labor and with minimal fossil fuel input, why can't we do it 2008?

Look out, here it comes, the "The Mayan Prophecy...21st December 2012."

Ekka · 23rd May 2008, 08:43 PM

They say we'll hit $2 a litre here around Christmas.

It would be pure arrogance to say we didn't know it was coming.

This is what happens when lazy vote grabbing politicians and corporate greed is set.

We are but pawns in a larger game. Sad fact is change often comes about with people of vision and people of determination .... something lacking in todays leaders.

I assure you that if half the money and tax subsidies of oil exploration were invested into alternatives, and that manufactures embraced this with govt tax breaks then we'd be doing something far better.

Just stupid to be churning out millions of petrol driven vehicles the way the world has in the last 10 years.

To truly break the back of this they have to cut the oil companies out of the picture, give alternative fuels which aren't under the same stranglehold ... like a home brewer making his own beer, power to the people gives true independence. A fuel we could all have, make, own and use would overturn a corrupt and greed driven business, that runs the world.

Therrin · 23rd May 2008, 09:28 PM

Maybe forming militias and storing food would be the most proactive solution.

Put the engineer types here on TW to working on a hydrogen fuel-cell chain saw?

clementine · 24th May 2008, 03:53 AM

It's nice to see some research going on into alternatives other than Veg oil:

Green Star Creates Breakthrough Micronutrient that Boosts Algae Growth : TreeHugger

So, Eric, all we need now is our own little Algae/fuel processing plant in the garage.

Ekka · 24th May 2008, 04:23 AM

1 Barrel is 158 Litres

50% converts to gasoline and around 16% to diesel via refining, the rest becomes other fuels. Source Biofuels for Transportation

So it's the cost of the raw material that is the problem. The cost of refining, tax etc is not the problem per litre at the pump.

Need a raw material that costs next to nothing that can be used to propel a vehicle. Only 2 things come to mind, solar and water. Imagine being able to fill your car with water and drive off! Imagine the govt and oil companies if that were the case.

Done it · 24th May 2008, 06:18 AM

YouTube - Stan Meyer - Water Powered Car - News Reports

The water car has been around for years, a guy here from Granville had one running before Meyer, but can you believe this one? Same idea just a new version. www.water4gas.com

clementine · 24th May 2008, 07:34 AM

Surely, I mean, Surely!!!!

That can not be feasable or easy or we'd all have one.....

Wouldn't we????

Are ya sure it's not a con?

You lot need a truck that runs off chipper output

If you can find 1100 acres of cheap land, close to a water source, you could set up one of these:
First Algae Biodiesel Plant Goes Online: April 1, 2008 : Gas 2.0

newguy18 · 24th May 2008, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekka

Imagine being able to fill your car with water and drive off! Imagine the govt and oil companies if that were the case.

if this works it might actually be the case.
Run Your Car On Water - Save 50% Fuel + Double Your Mileage
I'm gonna try it on a lawn mower if i ever get the time.

Ekka · 24th May 2008, 11:06 PM

What's missing in all of these is simple pay and install places to go.

Like getting new tyres why isn't there garages around where you rock up, pay ya $'s and drive off converted?

Need this in bolt on kit form.

Hmmm, I'm going to make some enquiries.

Sean Freeman · 24th May 2008, 11:29 PM

Guys before we go off into the wide blue yonder with smiles on our faces, check out some of the facts about the claims for the so called Browns gas...
Brown's Gas information

I really wish the claims made about this gas were true, they are not supported by any reliable empirical testing..please anyone thinking of spending any of your hard earned on this....DON'T

Therrin · 25th May 2008, 03:25 AM

clementine · 25th May 2008, 03:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Therrin

<while everyone else is arguing gas... Therrin is stockpiling it

Don't stockpile it for too long Therrin cos it has a limited shelf life.

Therrin · 25th May 2008, 04:10 AM

By storing in vacumn bags, then stacking those in a bucket (square buckets are better, round is hard on stacking) or a tight-locking storage bin, adding some silica salt packets, and flushing with CO2 ...

Oh, and storing in a "cool dark place"; you can get really good storage time.
A packet of silica in with your vacumn bags is even better.

Moisture = corrosion. Corrosion = bad ammo. Control the moisture, and the ammo stays happy.

Chemical breakdown of the powder is a different story. But if you're purchasing good quality, well-known brands, then it shouldn't be too bad.

Food is more of a PITA, but all of it should be *ROTATED*, which is the biggest PITA of any good storage system. Especially if its...oh... burried?

Ekka · 25th May 2008, 04:43 AM

WTF are you on about, you been watching too many MAD MAX movies.

Therrin · 25th May 2008, 06:56 AM

Quote:

MEChA is an Hispanic separatist organization that encourages anti-American activities and civil disobedience. The radical members of MEChA who refer to themselves as "Mechistas," romanticize Mexican claims to the "lost Territories" of the Southwestern United States -- a Chicano country called Aztlan.

What kind of bullshit is this ?? No no no my friend, you have it almost backwards.

I find myself in a particular stewing pot of cultures. One which is armed (unlike the aussies), as well as having a hierarchy of political and socio-economic hotspots.

FUEL, the topic of this thread, is a prime mover in an example of economic collapse. As the price climbs, unstability ensues. At some point, the grocery stores start running short, then running out. Panic follows. Rioting results.

I don't know about you, but I have an uncomfy view of the not-far future of my region of southern california. The border situation only makes it worse.
An otherwise open border allows an influx of foreign natives, which then flow freely, unchecked, into our territory. This flow, in time, ceases to a trickle. But by then, the damage has been done. Massive immigration on unheard of levels has commenced.
Once we have their millions in our country, they take hold. Continuously dividing and holding more land as they go until.... what do you know, there's a new piece of mexico, growing in our our borders.

It's a little on the overboard side, but the outcome would be pretty hideous.

I'm not just spinning random yarns here. Cut me some slack, I kept it on topic. It's all about fuel crisis. The price of it, and a potential outcome.

So while everyone's arguing, I'm just gonna squirrel some morsels away for winter. What's the worst that could happen. I'd be wrong...right?

23rd May 2008, 05:25 PM	#1 (permalink)
clementine Mature tree Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Central Portugal Posts: 332	World Fuel Crisis Looms! I think we all have an incling that this is on the cards, especially the way fuel price is rocketing: http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.htm This theory is taken from the study above: "Our simple mathematical model and recent case histories have shown that once oil production in an oil exporting country starts declining, the resulting decline in net oil exports can be quite rapid, and the oil exporter tends to show an accelerating net export decline rate. We have used some additional mathematical methods to forecast future production and consumption for key oil exporting countries. Our middle case forecast is that the top five net oil exporting countries, accounting for about half of world net oil exports, will approach zero net oil exports around 2031—going from peak net exports to zero in about 26 years, versus seven years and eight years respectively for the UK and Indonesia. In our opinion, the only real difference between the top five and the UK and Indonesia is that the top five net exporters in 2005 had a lower rate of consumption relative to production. Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame. Smaller oil exporters like Angola can and will increase their net exports, but smaller exporters, just like smaller oil fields, tend to have sharper production peaks and more rapid net export declines than do the larger net exporters. And offsetting many of the gains by some smaller exporters will be sharp declines in net exports from other smaller exporters like Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports by 2014. Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports. In simplest terms, we are concerned that the very lifeblood of the world industrial economy—net oil export capacity—is draining away in front of our very eyes, and we believe that it is imperative that major oil importing countries like the United States launch an emergency Electrification of Transportation program--electric light rail and streetcars--combined with a crash wind power program. As Alan Drake has pointed out, the United States--with roughly 1/3rd its current population, 1/25th of its current inflation adjusted GDP and with primitive Technology --built subways in its largest cities and streetcars in 500 cities, towns and villages in just 20 years (1897-1916), which does not even take into account numerous interurban systems. If we could do it in 1908 with mules, manual labor and with minimal fossil fuel input, why can't we do it 2008? Look out, here it comes, the "The Mayan Prophecy...21st December 2012." __________________ Meddle not in the affairs of dragons - for you are crunchy and taste of chicken! Builder in Central Portugal

23rd May 2008, 08:43 PM	#2 (permalink)
Ekka Admin - Dip Arb & Hort Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Brisbane Posts: 7,734	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! They say we'll hit $2 a litre here around Christmas. It would be pure arrogance to say we didn't know it was coming. This is what happens when lazy vote grabbing politicians and corporate greed is set. We are but pawns in a larger game. Sad fact is change often comes about with people of vision and people of determination .... something lacking in todays leaders. I assure you that if half the money and tax subsidies of oil exploration were invested into alternatives, and that manufactures embraced this with govt tax breaks then we'd be doing something far better. Just stupid to be churning out millions of petrol driven vehicles the way the world has in the last 10 years. To truly break the back of this they have to cut the oil companies out of the picture, give alternative fuels which aren't under the same stranglehold ... like a home brewer making his own beer, power to the people gives true independence. A fuel we could all have, make, own and use would overturn a corrupt and greed driven business, that runs the world. __________________ Arborist Training in Australia\| Your Free Helping Guide Free Tree and Green Industry Link Directory .... Yes, I also SEO (Optimize) and build websites that fly high in Google Qualified Brisbane Tree Lopping \| Stump Grinding and Stump Removal Brisbane Brisbane - Gold Coast Tree Care, Consulting, Developer, Tree and Arborist Reports Forum Sponsors

23rd May 2008, 09:28 PM	#3 (permalink)
Therrin The Tree World Bandit Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Lancaster, Ca Posts: 1,424	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! Maybe forming militias and storing food would be the most proactive solution. Put the engineer types here on TW to working on a hydrogen fuel-cell chain saw? __________________ Ken Fessia I.T.S.A. Tree Service (661) 916-4703

24th May 2008, 03:53 AM	#4 (permalink)
clementine Mature tree Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Central Portugal Posts: 332	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! It's nice to see some research going on into alternatives other than Veg oil: Green Star Creates Breakthrough Micronutrient that Boosts Algae Growth : TreeHugger So, Eric, all we need now is our own little Algae/fuel processing plant in the garage. __________________ Meddle not in the affairs of dragons - for you are crunchy and taste of chicken! Builder in Central Portugal

24th May 2008, 04:23 AM	#5 (permalink)
Ekka Admin - Dip Arb & Hort Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Brisbane Posts: 7,734	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! 1 Barrel is 158 Litres 50% converts to gasoline and around 16% to diesel via refining, the rest becomes other fuels. Source Biofuels for Transportation So it's the cost of the raw material that is the problem. The cost of refining, tax etc is not the problem per litre at the pump. Need a raw material that costs next to nothing that can be used to propel a vehicle. Only 2 things come to mind, solar and water. Imagine being able to fill your car with water and drive off! Imagine the govt and oil companies if that were the case. __________________ Arborist Training in Australia\| Your Free Helping Guide Free Tree and Green Industry Link Directory .... Yes, I also SEO (Optimize) and build websites that fly high in Google Qualified Brisbane Tree Lopping \| Stump Grinding and Stump Removal Brisbane Brisbane - Gold Coast Tree Care, Consulting, Developer, Tree and Arborist Reports Forum Sponsors

24th May 2008, 06:18 AM	#6 (permalink)
Done it Mature tree Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Parramatta. nsw. Australia. Posts: 376	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! YouTube - Stan Meyer - Water Powered Car - News Reports The water car has been around for years, a guy here from Granville had one running before Meyer, but can you believe this one? Same idea just a new version. www.water4gas.com

24th May 2008, 07:34 AM	#7 (permalink)
clementine Mature tree Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Central Portugal Posts: 332	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! Surely, I mean, Surely!!!! That can not be feasable or easy or we'd all have one..... Wouldn't we???? Are ya sure it's not a con? You lot need a truck that runs off chipper output If you can find 1100 acres of cheap land, close to a water source, you could set up one of these: First Algae Biodiesel Plant Goes Online: April 1, 2008 : Gas 2.0 __________________ Meddle not in the affairs of dragons - for you are crunchy and taste of chicken! Builder in Central Portugal Last edited by clementine : 24th May 2008 at 10:05 AM.

24th May 2008, 11:06 PM	#9 (permalink)
Ekka Admin - Dip Arb & Hort Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Brisbane Posts: 7,734	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! What's missing in all of these is simple pay and install places to go. Like getting new tyres why isn't there garages around where you rock up, pay ya $'s and drive off converted? Need this in bolt on kit form. Hmmm, I'm going to make some enquiries. __________________ Arborist Training in Australia\| Your Free Helping Guide Free Tree and Green Industry Link Directory .... Yes, I also SEO (Optimize) and build websites that fly high in Google Qualified Brisbane Tree Lopping \| Stump Grinding and Stump Removal Brisbane Brisbane - Gold Coast Tree Care, Consulting, Developer, Tree and Arborist Reports Forum Sponsors

24th May 2008, 11:29 PM	#10 (permalink)
Sean Freeman PDF King & Arborist Extrodinaire Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Townsville Nth Queensland & Gold Coast Sth Queensland Posts: 1,868	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! Guys before we go off into the wide blue yonder with smiles on our faces, check out some of the facts about the claims for the so called Browns gas... Brown's Gas information I really wish the claims made about this gas were true, they are not supported by any reliable empirical testing..please anyone thinking of spending any of your hard earned on this....DON'T __________________ Sean Trees are poems that earth writes upon the sky, We fell them down and turn them into paper, That we may record our emptiness. - Kahlil Gibran

25th May 2008, 03:25 AM	#11 (permalink)
Therrin The Tree World Bandit Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Lancaster, Ca Posts: 1,424	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! <while everyone else is arguing gas... Therrin is stockpiling it, and ammo. Lots and lots of ammo.> <ok maybe some powerbars too> __________________ Ken Fessia I.T.S.A. Tree Service (661) 916-4703

25th May 2008, 04:10 AM	#13 (permalink)
Therrin The Tree World Bandit Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Lancaster, Ca Posts: 1,424	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! By storing in vacumn bags, then stacking those in a bucket (square buckets are better, round is hard on stacking) or a tight-locking storage bin, adding some silica salt packets, and flushing with CO2 ... Oh, and storing in a "cool dark place"; you can get really good storage time. A packet of silica in with your vacumn bags is even better. Moisture = corrosion. Corrosion = bad ammo. Control the moisture, and the ammo stays happy. Chemical breakdown of the powder is a different story. But if you're purchasing good quality, well-known brands, then it shouldn't be too bad. Food is more of a PITA, but all of it should be ROTATED, which is the biggest PITA of any good storage system. Especially if its...oh... burried? __________________ Ken Fessia I.T.S.A. Tree Service (661) 916-4703

25th May 2008, 04:43 AM	#14 (permalink)
Ekka Admin - Dip Arb & Hort Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Brisbane Posts: 7,734	Re: World Fuel Crisis Looms! WTF are you on about, you been watching too many MAD MAX movies. __________________ Arborist Training in Australia\| Your Free Helping Guide Free Tree and Green Industry Link Directory .... Yes, I also SEO (Optimize) and build websites that fly high in Google Qualified Brisbane Tree Lopping \| Stump Grinding and Stump Removal Brisbane Brisbane - Gold Coast Tree Care, Consulting, Developer, Tree and Arborist Reports Forum Sponsors